Last week Nick Clegg was 8/1 to be replaced as Liberal Democrat leader before the next election. Yesterday morning that was 5/1 – by last night he was just 5/2 to get the boot. Odds of Clegg being ditched continue to fall; now 5/2 to go before general election. Farron 7/4 to take over. — Ladbrokes Politics … Read moreIs Clegg toast and who would replace him?
1. UKIP go from 7/2 to 11/4 to win the Newark by-election. They “won” the seat in European votes, and that has livened up a market which was beginning to assume that the Tories would win easily. 2. Nick Clegg shortens into 4/1 to be ditched as Liberal Democrat leader before the general election. Personally, I don’t think it’s all that … Read moreTop five betting moves following the Euro elections
Are the betting markets more accurate guides to election results than pollsters? In this instance, yes they were. The Ladbrokes figure is based on our last percentage lines for each party, which you could have bet at either 5/6 over or under. The pollsters are their respective last published poll and the figures are just … Read moreBetting markets beat pollsters in Euro elections.
Ladbrokes have a market on which constituency Nigel Farage will stand in at the general election. When deciding not to stand in Newark, he cited the fact that he had no personal connection with the area. That should pretty much rule out everywhere outside of the South East. He dropped another hint last week; when asked if … Read moreWhere will Farage stand? – the latest betting
Initial media reactions to UKIP’s local election results have been slightly tempered by various well informed commentators pointing out that their performance probably wasn’t that much better (perhaps even worse) than in the 2013 locals. Today’s numbers in context – Ukip doing worse than last year, but better than in polls — AndrewSparrow (@AndrewSparrow) May 23, 2014 … Read moreUKIP’s General Election Odds