Labour lost nine seats in the Yorkshire/Humber region in 2010. Today, Ladbrokes are forecasting that they will regain just four of those at the next general election. Below is a list of the seats most at risk of changing hands, along with the “lose percentage” which is the chance of the incumbent party being defeated, based on Ladbrokes individual constituency odds.

SeatWinner 2010Maj% 2010Lose ChancePrediction
Bradford EastLib-Dem0.985.24%LAB GAIN
PudseyConservative3.470.16%LAB GAIN
DewsburyConservative2.869.59%LAB GAIN
KeighleyConservative6.254.71%LAB GAIN
Elmet & RothwellConservative8.144.09%CON HOLD
Colne ValleyConservative8.843.74%CON HOLD
CleethorpesConservative9.642.37%CON HOLD
Calder ValleyConservative12.440.25%CON HOLD
Leeds North WestLib-Dem20.930.96%LD HOLD
Bradford WestLabour14.227.55%LAB REGAIN
Sheffield HallamLib-Dem29.927.10%LD HOLD
Brigg and GooleConservative11.726.44%CON HOLD
Great GrimsbyLabour2.224.96%LAB HOLD
Scarborough & WhitbyConservative16.523.66%CON HOLD
HalifaxLabour3.422.52%LAB HOLD
Morley & OutwoodLabour2.320.14%LAB HOLD
RotherhamLabour27.920.04%LAB HOLD

Bradford East looks like an extremely likely pick up for Labour, with sitting MP David Ward coming under criticism for some recent remarks about the Middle East. George Galloway is a 3/1 underdog to hold on to Bradford West for Respect after his stunning 2012 by-election victory. It’s a slightly uncomfortable point to make, but if the situation in Gaza is still a major issue in May 2015, that would probably increase his chances if he decides to stand again.

Pudsey, Dewsbury & Keighley are three seats that Labour have to be winning if Ed Miliband is to have any chance of becoming PM. If they are to ensure a majority, they probably need to be winning some of the seats further down the list as well.

The Lib Dem majority in Leeds North West should be enough to see them hold on. Likewise for Nick Clegg in Sheffield Hallam although he is by no means a certainty to be returning to Westminster. After his very narrow win in 2010, Ed Balls looks a lot safer in Morley & Outwood this time.

UKIP have emerged as very plausible challengers for the Labour held seat of Great Grimsby, with Austin Mitchell retiring. Rotherham has also become a realistic target for them after their spectacular gains in the town at May’s local elections.

The East Midlands could be a crucial battleground at the general election, with a host of Labour/Tory marginals. Based on Ladbrokes’ current odds on every constituency, we are forecasting that Labour will gain seven seats straight from the Conservatives. Below is a list of those seats, along with others that we calculate are at most risk. The “lose chance” is the probability, according to our odds, that the incumbent party will be defeated. TCTC = Too Close To Call.

Seat2010 Winner2010 Maj %Lose ChancePrediction
SherwoodConservative0.479.79%LAB GAIN
BroxtoweConservative0.775.34%LAB GAIN
Amber ValleyConservative1.266.86%LAB GAIN
LincolnConservative2.370.40%LAB GAIN
CorbyConservative3.577.91%LAB GAIN
Northampton NorthConservative4.859.79%LAB GAIN
ErewashConservative5.364.13%LAB GAIN
LoughboroughConservative7.152.21%TCTC
High PeakConservative9.339.18%CON HOLD
Leicestershire NWConservative14.524.51%CON HOLD
Boston & SkegnessConservative28.825.88%CON HOLD
AshfieldLabour0.424.38%LAB HOLD
Louth and HorncastleConservative27.519.83%CON HOLD

One of the most high profile casualties could be Anna Soubry in Broxtowe, with former Labour MP Nick Palmer a 2/7 shot to retake the seat. We list Corby as a Labour gain, although they currently hold it after the by-election to replace Louise Mensch. We’ve seen some informed money for the Conservatives to win this back and their odds have shortened from 4/1 to 3/1. New Education Secretary Nicky Morgan faces a tough battle to remain at Westminster, with the result in her Loughborough constituency currently too close to call; both Labour and the Tories are listed at 10/11.

We give the Liberal Democrats virtually no chance of winning a seat in the region, with the interesting exception of Ashfield. They achieved the second highest Lab-Lib swing in the country here in 2010 and came within 200 votes of winning. The early betting suggests that a Lib Dem gain is not out of the question here in 2015, at 4/1.

UKIP have two of their best chances in the whole of the UK in this region. They got over 50% of the vote in Boston & Skegness in May’s European elections and are just 7/2 to overturn a huge Tory majority. Neighbouring Louth & Horncastle is another very live possibility for them, particularly with the long-standing Peter Tapsell stepping down as MP; UKIP are 4/1 to take the seat.

So, here’s how we think the seats will break down in 2015, with changes from 2010:

  • Cons 23 (-7)
  • Lab 22 (+7)

We’ve identified 17 seats in the South East of England with a significant risk (above 25% by our definition) of switching at the 2015 general election. These estimates are based on Ladbrokes’ latest odds on every constituency which you can find here. The “lose chance” is our current estimate of the probability of the incumbent party being unseated. (TCTC = too close to call)

SeatWinner 2010Maj% 2010PredictionLose chance
HoveConservative3.8LAB GAIN75.69%
Hastings & RyeConservative4LAB GAIN72.23%
Brighton KemptownConservative3.1LAB GAIN69.92%
Thanet SouthConservative16.6UKIP GAIN67.15%
Brighton PavilionGreen2.4TCTC52.64%
EastbourneLib-Dem6.6TCTC52.21%
Portsmouth NorthConservative16.5CON LOSS50.44%
Portsmouth SouthLib-Dem12.6LD HOLD47.99%
EastleighLib-Dem7.2LD HOLD44.11%
DoverConservative10.5CON HOLD41.96%
Milton Keynes SouthConservative9.4CON HOLD35.50%
Southampton ItchenLabour0.4LAB HOLD31.98%
Oxford West & AbingdonConservative0.3CON HOLD27.02%
CrawleyConservative12.5CON HOLD26.71%
Folkestone & HytheConservative19.2CON HOLD26.69%
Reading WestConservative12.6CON HOLD26.37%
LewesLib-Dem15.3LD HOLD24.82%

So, several very close and hard to predict seats here. Brighton and Hove will be a crucial battleground for Labour and we now forecast them to take Hove and Brighton Kemptown, with Brighton Pavilion being on a knife edge; currently we have Labour and the Greens as 10/11 joint favourites. This was the biggest betting contest of the 2010 election, and it’s sure to be near the top again in 2015.

Hastings & Rye is the only other seat we forecast as a Labour gain. They are quite close to being favourites in Portsmouth North, but although there is over a 50% chance the Tories will lose this, they are still just about the most likely winning party; UKIP could confound the situation here.

The Liberal Democrats most vulnerable seat is Eastbourne, where they are joint 10/11 favourites with the Tories. Eastleigh and Portsmouth South are still just about in their hold column. Norman Baker looks a bit more secure in Lewes. Maidstone & The Weald doesn’t quite make it on to our list, but we’ve taken quite a bit of money on the Lib Dems to gain this from the Tories. Local election results have been very good and this seat has the potential to be one of the biggest surprises in the country. Oxford West & Abingdon is another plausible Lib Dem gain.

UKIP are now favourites to win Thanet South, but this could be a very tight three way marginal. If Farage chooses to stand here, they could get shorter still. The betting also gives them a very good chance in at least five other seats in the region:

UKIP’s top targets in the South East

  • 6/4 Thanet South
  • 3/1 Folkestone
  • 4/1 Portsmouth South
  • 4/1 Thanet North
  • 5/1 Basingstoke
  • 6/1 Dover

 

Based on Ladbrokes’ odds in each individual constituency, we’re projecting that five seats in Scotland will change hands at the next general election. Amazingly, not a single seat switched in 2010 (ignoring a couple of seats regained after by-elections). Here are the constituencies most at risk this time. The “lose chance” is the probability, based on our odds, of the incumbent party being defeated :

SeatWinner 2010Maj % Prediction Lose Chance
Argyll & Bute LD7.6 SNP GAIN 77.64%
Gordon LD13.8 SNP GAIN 64.42%
Dunbartonshire East LD4.5 LAB GAIN 63.18%
Edinburgh West LD8.2 LAB GAIN 60.58%
Inverness LD18.6 LD LOSS 56.85%
Aberdeenshire W & K LD8.2 LD HOLD 48.78%
Berwickshire, Rox & Sel LD11.6 LD HOLD 46.04%
Caithness, Suth & ER LD16.8 LD HOLD 36.62%
Ochil & Perthshire South LAB10.3 LAB HOLD 36.07%
Falkirk LAB15.4 LAB HOLD 35.51%
Dumfriesshire, C & T CONS9.1 CON HOLD 35.10%
Fife North East LD22.6 LD HOLD 33.19%
Dundee East SNP4.5 SNP HOLD 27.03%
Ross, Skye and Lochaber LD37.5 LD HOLD 12.61%
Orkney and Shetland LD51.3 LD HOLD 6.44%

Danny Alexander is given a 57% chance of losing his Inverness seat, but we aren’t forecasting a gain for any party, because the SNP and Labour are both in with a reasonable chance of winning it.  So, that still remains in the LD column in our overall totals below as he is still just about favourite, although odds-against.

We have the SNP as gaining two seats from the Liberal Democrats, but both are very hard to call, especially Argyll & Bute where they actually came fourth last time. This is probably the most difficult seat in Britain to forecast, with all four parties in with a shout. Their best chance of any gains from Labour come in Ochil & Perthshire South and Falkirk – you can back them at 7/4 in each of those two seats.

The Tories are forecast to remain with just one Scottish MP, although they have a couple of very plausible targets in Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk at 11/10, and Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine at 6/4.

Here are the projected new seat totals for Scotland, (with changes from 2010):

  • Lab 43 (+2)
  • SNP 8 (+2)
  • LD 7  (-4)
  • Cons 1 (nc)

Clearly, the big unknown is how the result of the Independence Referendum will affect voter behavior. If there is a YES vote, then these MPs will presumably be out of a job within two years of the election.

 

 

LONDON, ENGLAND – MARCH 26: Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg (R) and UKIP (UK Independence Party) leader Nigel Farage, hosted by LBC’s Nick Ferrari, take part in a debate over Britain’s future in the European Union, held at 8 Northumberland Avenue on March 26, 2014 in London, England. Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage will go head to head in the first of two debates about whether Britain should stay in the EU. (Photo by Ian West – WPA Pool / Getty Images)

 

Just over two years ago, Ladbrokes opened a market on which of UKIP and the Liberal Democrats would get most votes at the next general election. We made UKIP 5/1.  Today, for the first time, they are now favourites to out-poll the Lib Dems.

YouGov’s latest poll has UKIP ahead 14-8. Survation has it at an incredible 22-7.

There are many reasons for thinking that the Liberal Democrats will recover and UKIP drop down. But the lead that UKIP have had for many months shows no sign of diminishing right now.

Page 1 of 212