Political Scientists predict huge SNP gains in 2015

Chris Hanretty tells #newsnight: This will be the hardest post-war election to predict — BBC Newsnight (@BBCNewsnight) October 28, 2014 Newsnight ran a good piece yesterday explaining some of the problems with forecasting the next general election, including a very interesting contribution from Chris Hanretty from the UEA. One of the best features of Chris’s model is … Read morePolitical Scientists predict huge SNP gains in 2015

UKIP odds shorten again following new Rochester poll

ComRes poll in Rochester & Strood: UKIP 43% Con 30% Lab 21% Green 3% Lib Dem 3%  — Andrew Hawkins, October 22, 2014 A 13% lead for UKIP saw their odds contract from 1/3 yesterday to 1/5 this morning. Not a particularly surprising result, as the Survation poll three weeks ago gave them a 9% … Read moreUKIP odds shorten again following new Rochester poll

It’s 10/1 that there are TWO general elections next year

With it now being odds-on that we have a hung parliament next year, some are now speculating on the chances of another election having to be called pretty swiftly. It last happened after the indecisive result of the February 1974 election, the only time since 1910 that there have been two in the same calendar … Read moreIt’s 10/1 that there are TWO general elections next year

How many seats will the Greens win at the general election?

Confident Greens eye 12 seats at next UK election http://t.co/5uvJ64cpeA — The Guardian (@guardian) October 19, 2014 Until recently, most of us had been assuming that the Greens would have enough of a job holding on to their one seat in Brighton Pavilion. Perhaps an outside chance in Norwich South, but that was about it. Some good … Read moreHow many seats will the Greens win at the general election?