Are the betting markets more accurate guides to election results than pollsters? In this instance, yes they were. The Ladbrokes figure is based on our last percentage lines for each party, which you could have bet at either 5/6 over or under. The pollsters are their respective last published poll and the figures are just … Read moreBetting markets beat pollsters in Euro elections.
Ladbrokes have a market on which constituency Nigel Farage will stand in at the general election. When deciding not to stand in Newark, he cited the fact that he had no personal connection with the area. That should pretty much rule out everywhere outside of the South East. He dropped another hint last week; when asked if … Read moreWhere will Farage stand? – the latest betting
Initial media reactions to UKIP’s local election results have been slightly tempered by various well informed commentators pointing out that their performance probably wasn’t that much better (perhaps even worse) than in the 2013 locals. Today’s numbers in context – Ukip doing worse than last year, but better than in polls — AndrewSparrow (@AndrewSparrow) May 23, 2014 … Read moreUKIP’s General Election Odds
With result still coming in from the locals, Ladbrokes have reacted to UKIP’s good performance by cutting them from 4/5 to 1/2 to win a seat at the next General Election. I suspect that, once we go through the results in detail, there are going to be lots of areas of concentrated UKIP support and constituencies … Read moreBetting markets react to UKIP successes
Only eight days to go, and the very real possibility that UKIP will soon have it’s first Westminster MP. Latest odds from Ladbrokes. Here were the opening prices when Patrick Mercer first stepped down: 4/5 Conservatives 2/1 UKIP 4/1 Labour Labour actually attracted a fair degree of early support into 3/1 but that early confidence has totally evaporated. … Read moreNewark By-election – latest betting news.