We’ve identified 17 seats in the South East of England with a significant risk (above 25% by our definition) of switching at the 2015 general election. These estimates are based on Ladbrokes’ latest odds on every constituency which you can find here. The “lose chance” is our current estimate of the probability of the incumbent party … Read moreThe 17 seats at risk in the South East
Prof Stephen Fisher has produced his latest weekly estimates of the next general election outcome. Let’s compare those with the probabilities implied by Ladbrokes’ latest general election betting odds. Most Seats Overall Majority Pretty close really, which I find re-assuring. When Fisher produced his initial estimates a few months back, they were a long way out from the … Read morePolitical Science vs Betting Markets – Who’ll win the election?
Based on Ladbrokes’ odds in each individual constituency, we’re projecting that five seats in Scotland will change hands at the next general election. Amazingly, not a single seat switched in 2010 (ignoring a couple of seats regained after by-elections). Here are the constituencies most at risk this time. The “lose chance” is the probability, based on … Read moreThe five Scottish seats set to change hands in 2015
William Hague’s impending departure from the Commons has opened up a vacancy in one of the Tories’ safest constituencies in the country. So, we’ve opened up a market on who will be their candidate for the next general election. The Daily Mail have speculated that Selina Scott could be in the frame. If Boris is to return to Westminster … Read moreWho will take over from Hague in Richmond?
If Boris doesn’t stand again, which almost everyone is assuming, it’s quite hard to see how the Labour candidate isn’t going to become Mayor. Lord Coe would be an interesting runner, but he’s shown no sign of wanting to get back into politics. We’ve seen a bit of money for George Galloway at 25/1; I … Read moreTessa Jowell now outright favourite to be London Mayor