All Roads lead to UKIP? | Geoff Evans & @jon_mellon – @BESResearch — Will Jennings (@drjennings) December 9, 2014
Lots of talk today about which party will be most affected by UKIP in next year’s general election. The Evans & Mellon article above suggests the Tories still have most to worry about, but I thought I’d have a look at which Labour seats are most at threat, as indicated by Ladbrokes’ latest constituency odds. The UKIP Win % is their chances of gaining each seat, as implied by the latest prices.
|Seat||Region||UKIP Win %|
|Great Grimsby||Yorks & Humber||32.9%|
|Rotherham||Yorks & Humber||28.5%|
|Dudley North||West Midlands||17.9%|
|Rother Valley||Yorks & Humber||15.0%|
|Walsall North||West Midlands||12.9%|
|Heywood and Middleton||North West||10.2%|
|Walsall South||West Midlands||10.1%|
|Hull East||Yorks & Humber||10.1%|
|Plymouth Moor View||South West||10.0%|
So, UKIP are not (yet) favourites to win a single Labour seat, whereas they are outright favourites in five Tory held seats (we’re including Clacton in there). It’s worth mentioning that seats like Thurrock and Great Yarmouth, which are among those five, might very well have had Labour as favourites to win if it were not for an expected strong UKIP showing.
Of UKIP’s top 20 most likely wins overall, 16 were won by the Conservatives in 2010. So, as far as the betting markets are concerned, this is still more of a problem for David Cameron than it is for Ed Miliband,