Reckless likely to lose next May, say bookies

The morning after last week’s Rochester and Strood by-election, we made the Tories 4/6 favourites to re-take the seat next May. Punters have been even more bullish and the Conservatives are now even stronger favourites, at 1/2, with UKIP drifting out to 6/4

According to our individual constituency prices, that means Rochester & Strood is now the eighth most likely win for UKIP at the general election. The UKIP win % is the chance of them taking the seat at the general election, as implied by our odds.

RankSeatWin 2010UKIP Win %
1ClactonCons82.25%
2Thanet SouthCons64.58%
3ThurrockCons57.47%
4Boston & SkegnessCons56.06%
5Great YarmouthCons40.33%
6Castle PointCons38.47%
7Thanet NorthCons36.55%
8Rochester & StroodCons35.87%
9Great GrimsbyLab32.94%
10RotherhamLab28.51%
11Cannock ChaseCons27.91%
12DoverCons27.77%
13Louth & HorncastleCons26.29%
14Basildon S & Thurrock ECons25.67%
15Folkestone & HytheCons22.65%
16Sittingbourne & SheppeyCons22.57%
17EastleighLD20.81%
18Camborne & RedruthCons20.23%
19St Austell & NewquayLD19.83%
20Portsmouth SouthLD19.66%

So, 15 of their top 20 prospects are Tory held seats although it’s worth pointing out that UKIP might prevent Labour from winning seats like Thurrock, Yarmouth and Cannock Chase which would all be very high on Ed Miliband’s target list.

Written by trontron