North Lanarkshire could be the crucial early indyref result tonight.
Ladbrokes will have odds available on the referendum throughout the night until the result is declared (or I fall asleep).
Here are the Press Associations estimated vote declaration times:
If this is close, we’ll likely all be waiting for Glasgow. The latest Ladbrokes prices there make YES and NO joint favourites at 5/6.
To help make sense of the results, you might like to check out our odds on which region will have the highest YES vote percentage:
If Na h-Eileanan Siar (the Western isles) do declare first, we won’t be over-reacting to the result. It could easily prove to be totally atypical to the rest of the country, although our betting suggests it is more likely to go YES.
North Lanarkshire on the other hand could set the tone early on. This is one of the most populous regions and at the moment, we can’t split YES and NO:
If NO wins here, then I’d be fairly certain that Scotland is staying in the UK. A YES win with over 53% or so would indicate that the nationalists are on course to go very close.
Clackmannanshire at 2.30 could also be interesting – we rate this as the second most likely area to go YES after Dundee, so if they can’t win here, that will be a very poor showing.
As things stand, a YES vote will be a very expensive outcome for Ladbrokes. The money today is overwhelmingly for independence, although the odds remain unchanged at 7/2. Our best outcome would be a YES vote of between 40 & 45%, preferably with a turnout under 80%. We can now say with certainty that this has been the biggest UK political betting event of all time.