Salmond’s clear cut victory last night saw the odds of a YES vote cut from 9/2 to 4/1 with Ladbrokes. History tells us that any post-debate boost tends to mostly fade away pretty quickly, and there is no particular reason to think this will be any different. The odds on the exchanges dipped a bit immediately after the first debate poll, but rebounded pretty quickly. Most other bookmakers also cut the YES price, some to as low as 7/2.
The snap ICM poll last night seemed to indicate that it hadn’t changed the overall picture, but it will be interesting to see any polls later this week with fieldwork from the days after. If one of the more YES friendly pollsters is surveying today and tomorrow, it’s not inconceivable that we could see a tie, or even a YES lead. That really would shake the betting markets up.
There has also been a flurry of money on a high turnout after Salmond’s confident prediction that it would be over 80%. The odds of it being between 80 – 85% were cut from 7/2 to 3/1. I’ve written some more about turnout betting here.
Even though a NO vote would suit Ladbrokes’ betting position more at the moment, we were quite pleased that Salmond won as it helps keep interest in the outcome high. Another Darling victory might have sucked a bit of life out of the market.
Buzzword Bingo Results
For anyone who had a bet on our buzzword bingo debate market, we’ve settled the following as winners:
- 1/100 Currency
- 1/5 Plan B
- 1/2 Tuition Fees
- Evs Norway
- 7/4 No Going Back
- 3/1 Arc Of Prosperity