The odds for a YES vote moved in again today, to 7/2 from 4/1. That’s a fairly significant shift since the second debate, when the odds were 9/2. I’ve seen an argument recently that the betting markets don’t really reflect opinion in Scotland, because large staking English punters are backing NO and skewing the odds. … Read moreIs the indyref betting market being skewed by English money?
You have to think that Douglas Carswell must be very confident of taking the seat for UKIP for him to have stood down in the first place. He’s in a part of the world which is demographically quite UKIP friendly and the party did very well in local council elections. This will be a hugely … Read moreCarswell odds-on to win Clacton for UKIP
Have we missed out anyone obvious? Feel free to post suggestions here and we’ll add any good ones to the betting. Latest odds are on our website here A quick note on the rules for this one; only defectors before the next general election count and we’ll return all stakes if no Tory MP defects to UKIP … Read moreWhich Tory MP will defect next? The latest betting from Ladbrokes.
Sky News have reported on some “internal UKIP polling”, which the say reveals UKIP’s top dozen target seats. Ladbrokes have odds on every seat in Britain and, based on those, we can allocate a probability of UKIP winning each of these twelve seats. Seat Win 2010 Maj% UKIP Odds UKIP Win % Thanet South Conservative 16.6 11/10 43.09% Great … Read moreThe UKIP Top Twelve Target Seats
Salmond’s clear cut victory last night saw the odds of a YES vote cut from 9/2 to 4/1 with Ladbrokes. History tells us that any post-debate boost tends to mostly fade away pretty quickly, and there is no particular reason to think this will be any different. The odds on the exchanges dipped a bit immediately … Read moreBetting markets react to indyref debate