Labour lost nine seats in the Yorkshire/Humber region in 2010. Today, Ladbrokes are forecasting that they will regain just four of those at the next general election. Below is a list of the seats most at risk of changing hands, along with the “lose percentage” which is the chance of the incumbent party being defeated, based on Ladbrokes individual constituency odds.
|Seat||Winner 2010||Maj% 2010||Lose Chance||Prediction|
|Bradford East||Lib-Dem||0.9||85.24%||LAB GAIN|
|Elmet & Rothwell||Conservative||8.1||44.09%||CON HOLD|
|Colne Valley||Conservative||8.8||43.74%||CON HOLD|
|Calder Valley||Conservative||12.4||40.25%||CON HOLD|
|Leeds North West||Lib-Dem||20.9||30.96%||LD HOLD|
|Bradford West||Labour||14.2||27.55%||LAB REGAIN|
|Sheffield Hallam||Lib-Dem||29.9||27.10%||LD HOLD|
|Brigg and Goole||Conservative||11.7||26.44%||CON HOLD|
|Great Grimsby||Labour||2.2||24.96%||LAB HOLD|
|Scarborough & Whitby||Conservative||16.5||23.66%||CON HOLD|
|Morley & Outwood||Labour||2.3||20.14%||LAB HOLD|
Bradford East looks like an extremely likely pick up for Labour, with sitting MP David Ward coming under criticism for some recent remarks about the Middle East. George Galloway is a 3/1 underdog to hold on to Bradford West for Respect after his stunning 2012 by-election victory. It’s a slightly uncomfortable point to make, but if the situation in Gaza is still a major issue in May 2015, that would probably increase his chances if he decides to stand again.
Pudsey, Dewsbury & Keighley are three seats that Labour have to be winning if Ed Miliband is to have any chance of becoming PM. If they are to ensure a majority, they probably need to be winning some of the seats further down the list as well.
The Lib Dem majority in Leeds North West should be enough to see them hold on. Likewise for Nick Clegg in Sheffield Hallam although he is by no means a certainty to be returning to Westminster. After his very narrow win in 2010, Ed Balls looks a lot safer in Morley & Outwood this time.
UKIP have emerged as very plausible challengers for the Labour held seat of Great Grimsby, with Austin Mitchell retiring. Rotherham has also become a realistic target for them after their spectacular gains in the town at May’s local elections.