The five Scottish seats set to change hands in 2015
Based on Ladbrokes’ odds in each individual constituency, we’re projecting that five seats in Scotland will change hands at the next general election. Amazingly, not a single seat switched in 2010 (ignoring a couple of seats regained after by-elections). Here are the constituencies most at risk this time. The “lose chance” is the probability, based on our odds, of the incumbent party being defeated :
|Seat||Winner 2010||Maj %||Prediction||Lose Chance|
|Argyll & Bute||LD||7.6||SNP GAIN||77.64%|
|Dunbartonshire East||LD||4.5||LAB GAIN||63.18%|
|Edinburgh West||LD||8.2||LAB GAIN||60.58%|
|Aberdeenshire W & K||LD||8.2||LD HOLD||48.78%|
|Berwickshire, Rox & Sel||LD||11.6||LD HOLD||46.04%|
|Caithness, Suth & ER||LD||16.8||LD HOLD||36.62%|
|Ochil & Perthshire South||LAB||10.3||LAB HOLD||36.07%|
|Dumfriesshire, C & T||CONS||9.1||CON HOLD||35.10%|
|Fife North East||LD||22.6||LD HOLD||33.19%|
|Dundee East||SNP||4.5||SNP HOLD||27.03%|
|Ross, Skye and Lochaber||LD||37.5||LD HOLD||12.61%|
|Orkney and Shetland||LD||51.3||LD HOLD||6.44%|
Danny Alexander is given a 57% chance of losing his Inverness seat, but we aren’t forecasting a gain for any party, because the SNP and Labour are both in with a reasonable chance of winning it. So, that still remains in the LD column in our overall totals below as he is still just about favourite, although odds-against.
We have the SNP as gaining two seats from the Liberal Democrats, but both are very hard to call, especially Argyll & Bute where they actually came fourth last time. This is probably the most difficult seat in Britain to forecast, with all four parties in with a shout. Their best chance of any gains from Labour come in Ochil & Perthshire South and Falkirk – you can back them at 7/4 in each of those two seats.
The Tories are forecast to remain with just one Scottish MP, although they have a couple of very plausible targets in Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk at 11/10, and Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine at 6/4.
Here are the projected new seat totals for Scotland, (with changes from 2010):
- Lab 43 (+2)
- SNP 8 (+2)
- LD 7 (-4)
- Cons 1 (nc)
Clearly, the big unknown is how the result of the Independence Referendum will affect voter behavior. If there is a YES vote, then these MPs will presumably be out of a job within two years of the election.