The five Scottish seats set to change hands in 2015

Based on Ladbrokes’ odds in each individual constituency, we’re projecting that five seats in Scotland will change hands at the next general election. Amazingly, not a single seat switched in 2010 (ignoring a couple of seats regained after by-elections). Here are the constituencies most at risk this time. The “lose chance” is the probability, based on our odds, of the incumbent party being defeated :

SeatWinner 2010Maj % Prediction Lose Chance
Argyll & Bute LD7.6 SNP GAIN 77.64%
Gordon LD13.8 SNP GAIN 64.42%
Dunbartonshire East LD4.5 LAB GAIN 63.18%
Edinburgh West LD8.2 LAB GAIN 60.58%
Inverness LD18.6 LD LOSS 56.85%
Aberdeenshire W & K LD8.2 LD HOLD 48.78%
Berwickshire, Rox & Sel LD11.6 LD HOLD 46.04%
Caithness, Suth & ER LD16.8 LD HOLD 36.62%
Ochil & Perthshire South LAB10.3 LAB HOLD 36.07%
Falkirk LAB15.4 LAB HOLD 35.51%
Dumfriesshire, C & T CONS9.1 CON HOLD 35.10%
Fife North East LD22.6 LD HOLD 33.19%
Dundee East SNP4.5 SNP HOLD 27.03%
Ross, Skye and Lochaber LD37.5 LD HOLD 12.61%
Orkney and Shetland LD51.3 LD HOLD 6.44%

Danny Alexander is given a 57% chance of losing his Inverness seat, but we aren’t forecasting a gain for any party, because the SNP and Labour are both in with a reasonable chance of winning it.  So, that still remains in the LD column in our overall totals below as he is still just about favourite, although odds-against.

We have the SNP as gaining two seats from the Liberal Democrats, but both are very hard to call, especially Argyll & Bute where they actually came fourth last time. This is probably the most difficult seat in Britain to forecast, with all four parties in with a shout. Their best chance of any gains from Labour come in Ochil & Perthshire South and Falkirk – you can back them at 7/4 in each of those two seats.

The Tories are forecast to remain with just one Scottish MP, although they have a couple of very plausible targets in Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk at 11/10, and Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine at 6/4.

Here are the projected new seat totals for Scotland, (with changes from 2010):

  • Lab 43 (+2)
  • SNP 8 (+2)
  • LD 7  (-4)
  • Cons 1 (nc)

Clearly, the big unknown is how the result of the Independence Referendum will affect voter behavior. If there is a YES vote, then these MPs will presumably be out of a job within two years of the election.

 

Written by trontron