Based on, we’re projecting that five seats in Scotland will change hands at the next general election. Amazingly, not a single seat switched in 2010 (ignoring a couple of seats regained after by-elections). Here are the constituencies most at risk this time. The “lose chance” is the probability, based on our odds, of the incumbent party being defeated :
|Seat||Winner 2010||Maj %||Prediction||Lose Chance|
|Argyll & Bute||LD||7.6||SNP GAIN||77.64%|
|Dunbartonshire East||LD||4.5||LAB GAIN||63.18%|
|Edinburgh West||LD||8.2||LAB GAIN||60.58%|
|Aberdeenshire W & K||LD||8.2||LD HOLD||48.78%|
|Berwickshire, Rox & Sel||LD||11.6||LD HOLD||46.04%|
|Caithness, Suth & ER||LD||16.8||LD HOLD||36.62%|
|Ochil & Perthshire South||LAB||10.3||LAB HOLD||36.07%|
|Dumfriesshire, C & T||CONS||9.1||CON HOLD||35.10%|
|Fife North East||LD||22.6||LD HOLD||33.19%|
|Dundee East||SNP||4.5||SNP HOLD||27.03%|
|Ross, Skye and Lochaber||LD||37.5||LD HOLD||12.61%|
|Orkney and Shetland||LD||51.3||LD HOLD||6.44%|
Danny Alexander is given a 57% chance of losing his Inverness seat, but we aren’t forecasting a gain for any party, because the SNP and Labour are both in with a reasonable chance of winning it. So, that still remains in the LD column in our overall totals below as he is still just about favourite, although odds-against.
We have the SNP as gaining two seats from the Liberal Democrats, but both are very hard to call, especially Argyll & Bute where they actually came fourth last time. This is probably the most difficult seat in Britain to forecast, with all four parties in with a shout. Their best chance of any gains from Labour come in Ochil & Perthshire South and Falkirk – you can back them at 7/4 in each of those two seats.
The Tories are forecast to remain with just one Scottish MP, although they have a couple of very plausible targets in Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk at 11/10, and Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine at 6/4.
Here are the projected new seat totals for Scotland, (with changes from 2010):
- Lab 43 (+2)
- SNP 8 (+2)
- LD 7 (-4)
- Cons 1 (nc)
Clearly, the big unknown is how the result of the Independence Referendum will affect voter behavior. If there is a YES vote, then these MPs will presumably be out of a job within two years of the election.