Labour lost nine seats in the Yorkshire/Humber region in 2010. Today, Ladbrokes are forecasting that they will regain just four of those at the next general election. Below is a list of the seats most at risk of changing hands, along with the “lose percentage” which is the chance of the incumbent party being defeated, … Read moreThe 4 seats Labour are forecast to gain in Yorkshire
The East Midlands could be a crucial battleground at the general election, with a host of Labour/Tory marginals. Based on Ladbrokes’ current odds on every constituency, we are forecasting that Labour will gain seven seats straight from the Conservatives. Below is a list of those seats, along with others that we calculate are at most … Read moreThe seven seats Labour are set to gain in the East Midlands in 2015
The latest Independence Referendum polls have been fairly steady. In terms of the betting markets, not much has changed either, but I think we are definitely seeing an increase in money for YES. A customer in one of our shops in Edinburgh had £2,500 at 9/2 today and we’ve seen plenty of smaller bets over the weekend … Read moreWill the Commonwealth Games boost the YES indyref vote?
We’ve identified 17 seats in the South East of England with a significant risk (above 25% by our definition) of switching at the 2015 general election. These estimates are based on Ladbrokes’ latest odds on every constituency which you can find here. The “lose chance” is our current estimate of the probability of the incumbent party … Read moreThe 17 seats at risk in the South East
Prof Stephen Fisher has produced his latest weekly estimates of the next general election outcome. Let’s compare those with the probabilities implied by Ladbrokes’ latest general election betting odds. Most Seats Overall Majority Pretty close really, which I find re-assuring. When Fisher produced his initial estimates a few months back, they were a long way out from the … Read morePolitical Science vs Betting Markets – Who’ll win the election?