1. UKIP go from 7/2 to 11/4 to win the Newark by-election. They “won” the seat in European votes, and that has livened up a market which was beginning to assume that the Tories would win easily.

2. Nick Clegg shortens into 4/1 to be ditched as Liberal Democrat leader before the general election. Personally, I don’t think it’s all that likely and Hills’ quote of 6/4 is probably just an attempt to garner media attention rather than a serious estimation of the probabilities. Ladbrokes can be guilty of that as well –  we’ve quoted Clegg at 25/1 to be next Governor of Gibraltar following the Liberal landslide on The Rock.

3. Thanet South is now 4/6 favourite to be the seat that Nigel Farage chooses to stand in at the general election. This is starting to resemble a treasure hunt at a pirate-themed kids’ birthday party. “South of the river” and now “next to the sea” have been the clues that Nigel has opened so far.

4. UKIP are now 1/2 to win a seat anywhere at the general election.

5. Ed Miliband is Evens to be next Prime Minister, pushed out from 4/5. That’s probably quite a fair price given that Labour are still odds-on to win most seats at the next general election. But nobody seems very interested in backing it.

Are the betting markets more accurate guides to election results than pollsters? In this instance, yes they were.

The Ladbrokes figure is based on our last percentage lines for each party, which you could have bet at either 5/6 over or under. The pollsters are their respective last published poll and the figures are just for Lab, Con, LD & UKIP. The higher the bar, the more inaccurate they were.

To be fair to pollsters, some of the final polls were a few days before the vote. Also, I’m sure had you actually asked a pollster for a “prediction” they would mostly have got closer as they would have been able to factor in some of the vote going to all of the un-prompted itty-bitty parties on the ballot (Pirates, Christians, Lib Dems, etc.).

I was particularly pleased that our line on An Independence From Europe’s vote share got so close. We had it at 1.5%, they got 1.49%. The only party who actually out-performed the betting market prediction were the Tories.