There’s been a bit of a gamble on the SNP to win the most seats in Scotland in next May’s general election. Available at 11/10 this morning, a rush of money has seen them move into 8/11 favourites.

There hasn’t been any particularly new polling or news developments over the weekend that I am aware of to cause this. When you get this sort of move, it’s most likely some kind of tipping line, or perhaps a coordinated group of gamblers.

We’ve also made a number of adjustments to our constituency betting north of the border. Let’s have a look at the seats in which the SNP are now clear favourites, and their latest chances of winning each seat, as implied by Ladbrokes’ odds:

6 SNP HOLDS

  • 93% Moray
  • 91% Angus
  • 92% Dundee East
  • 90% Banff & Buchan
  • 87% Na h-Eileanan an lar
  • 85% Perth & North Perthshire

8 GAINS FROM LIB DEMS

  • 77% Gordon
  • 66% Argyll & Bute
  • 61% Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey
  • 61% Fife North East
  • 59% Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross
  • 45% Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine
  • 43% Edinburgh West
  • 34% Dunbartonshire East (joint favs w/Labour)

3 GAINS FROM LABOUR

  • 71% Ochil & South Perthshire
  • 64% Falkirk
  • 63% Dundee West

So, if they win every seat in which they are favourites, that still only leaves them with 17. They will likely need to win around 27 in order to be the largest party in Scotland. Which probably indicates that either our constituency odds for the SNP are a little too generous or that Labour are a good price at Evens to win most seats. I expect the answer probably lies somewhere in the middle.

If some of the recent Westminster polling is reflected in next May’s general election, the SNP are heading for a landslide next May. Yet, at Ladbrokes, we still make Labour favourites to win most Scottish seats.

Despite the incredible rise in their membership, it’s not going to be easy keeping up the enthusiasm and momentum generated by the YES campaign. It’s also quite likely that they are experiencing something of a honeymoon effect from Sturgeon’s election as leader.

If they can persuade the huge numbers of previous non-voters who turned up to vote YES to support them next year, there is obviously a chance that they can pick up a very large number of seats. However, it’s not hard to imagine that most of those people will revert to type and not bother for the Westminster election. That may not matter, as it’s pretty clear that enthusiasm for Scottish Labour is at an all-time low. If Jim Murphy is elected as leader (he’s currently a hot 1-5 favourite) he might be able to improve that somewhat.

Currently, the SNP hold 6 of Scotland’s 59 seats. The Tories and Liberal Democrats combined should probably win around at least five seats, so to get a plurality ahead of Labour, the Nationalists are probably going to have to win about 27. Looking at Ladbrokes’ individual constituency odds, their 27th most likely win is Glasgow Central. Not easy.

Constituency profile courtesy of ukpollingreport.