Which year will David Cameron leave the post of Prime Minister?

2015 is obviously the most likely – If Labour get the most seats at the general election (the betting markets say that’s about a 50% chance) Cameron will probably be leaving Downing Street. A very close result might leave him in place even if the Conservatives weren’t the biggest party, but such a result might also precipitate another general election quite quickly, when his position would be back in doubt.

If he gets through next year than anything is possible, especially if he’s in charge of a government with an uncertain majority. 2017 could be another trigger point if we get an EU referendum that year and PM Cameron is campaigning for IN but the result goes the other way.