UKIP odds shorten again following new Rochester poll

A 13% lead for UKIP saw their odds contract from 1/3 yesterday to 1/5 this morning. Not a particularly surprising result, as the Survation poll three weeks ago gave them a 9% lead and UKIP’s national vote share has been rising in the meantime.

It seems that this poll was commissioned by a UKIP supporter, I guess that will cause some scepticism among certain people. I remember UKIP supporters dismissing a Lord Ashcroft poll for the Newark by-election because he was “bound” to favour the Tories. Nonsense of course, but I suppose it is worth asking the question whether this poll would have seen the light of day had it been less encouraging for UKIP. If we only ever see the “good” numbers, then privately commissioned polls will tend to give us a misleading picture. Nate Silver has written about this subject in relation to US elections.

We’ve released some odds on the turnout in Rochester today – you can back it to be either over or under 50%

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