Just over two years ago, Ladbrokes opened a market on which of UKIP and the Liberal Democrats would get most votes at the next general election. We made UKIP 5/1. Today, for the first time, they are now favourites to out-poll the Lib Dems.
YouGov’s latest poll has UKIP ahead 14-8. Survation has it at an incredible 22-7.
There are many reasons for thinking that the Liberal Democrats will recover and UKIP drop down. But the lead that UKIP have had for many months shows no sign of diminishing right now.