The second Obama

Barrack Hussein Obama made history by becoming the first African American president of the United States of America in January 2009. He had been identified as a potential presidential candidate after his beautiful speech at the 2004 Democratic National Convention while he was Senator for Illinois. The possibility of an African American occupying the oval office was realized when Senator Obama became the first African American to win the nomination of a major party in the history of American Presidential Elections.

There have been African American Presidential Candidates whose bids were unsuccessful. They include:
 Fredrick Douglass who was a Republican aspirant in the 1888 primaries
 George Edwin Taylor who was a Southern Democrat in the July 1904 convention
 Shirley Chisholm who garnered 180 delegates from the 1972 Democratic National Convention
 Jesse Jackson who competed as a Democrat in the 1984 and 1988 presidential election
 Alan Keyes competed as a Republican in 1996, 2000 and 2008 Republican primaries
 Carol Moseley and Al Sharpton ran in 2004 Democratic Primaries
 Herman Cain, a tea party Republican ran briefly in 2012 but later withdrew before the primaries
 Ben Carson ran for the Republican Ticket in 2016

The impact of African American presidential candidates has been immense. They have made sure their voices were part of the national conversation.
Some names have been touted as possible leading contenders for the White House Race in the next election. Who could be the second Obama?

 Senator Cory Booker
Senator Booker electrified the Democratic National Convention in 2016 with a rousing speech. Pundits drew parallels to the Obama Speech in the 2004 DNC. The 49-year-old junior senator for New Jersey has been touted as a possible future Obama. He has served as Senator since 2013. He has previously served as Mayor of Newark from 2006 to 2013. He was Newark City Council Member for Central Ward between 1998 and 2002. Booker is a Yale Educated Lawyer. Obama is a lawyer too.
Senator Cory has been a champion of women’s rights, affirmative action and single – player healthcare. He is mostly considered neoliberal and a political moderate. His political ideologies align with those of the New Democrat Movement.

 Michelle LaVaughn Robinson Obama
The 54-year-old Former First Lady and Harvard trained Lawyer has been tipped as a suitable candidate for the top job. Michelle, like her husband Barrack, is a highly gifted orator and writer, Her 2016 DNC speech remains etched in the memories of Democrats when she endorsed Hillary Clinton for President.
She is a role model for women, an advocate for education, nutrition, healthy eating and poverty awareness. Her popularity during her stint as the first lady for the eight years was at an all-time high. If she were to run, she would make an incredible candidate and even a great commander in chief.

 Oprah Winfrey
When receiving her Cecile B. DeMiller Award for lifetime achievement at the 2018 Golden Globe Awards Ceremony, she gave a rousing acceptance speech. That speech evoked a national debate on her possible 2020 run. It even got the attention of President Trump who sarcastically responded that he would beat Oprah were she to run against him in the next election. The 64-year-old entertainment mogul is the first black woman to acquire the status of a billionaire. With her expansive networks, she has been the greatest black philanthropist in American History.

 Senator Kamala Devi Harris

The 54-year-old first time Senator from California has Jamaican and Indian descent. She served as a District Attorney for San Francisco for seven years. She then rose to become the Attorney General for California from January 2011 to January 2017. When she was DA, conviction rates rose from 52% to 67% for felony convictions, 85% for homicides and 75%convictions for drug dealers.
She has been considered a top contender for the 2020 Democratic Nomination for President. She has been a fierce critic of the Trump Administration.

 Deval Patrick

The 62-year-old Civil Rights Lawyer and former Governor of Massachusetts has also been considered as a potential. He is the only African American to have served as Governor of Massachusetts. During his tenure, Patrick spearheaded the implementation of the health care reform program. He increased funding for education. Like Michelle, he hails from the South Side of Chicago.
Speculations on his possible run started way back in 2012. He, however, downplayed running in the 2016 election. He has now publicly hinted at a 2022 run in March this year. He came to the defense of Obama in 2008 when Obama was accused of plagiarizing Patrick‘s gubernatorial run speech of 2006. He was also a surrogate of the Obama re-election campaign. He had even been as possible nominee for the United States Associate Justice seat in 2016 and also Attorney General way back in 2008.

Conclusively, there are high profile politicos who are likely to fit into the Second Obama profile. Others include New York Senator Kirk Gillibard and Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar. As 2020 approaches, the possibility of there being a second African American cannot be wished away.

In the space of under a month, the odds on a hung parliament after the election have moved from Evens to 4/7.

The main development behind this has been the startling polling coming out of Scotland showing the possibility of sweeping SNP gains, mainly at Labour’s expense. The continued good showing of the Greens at the polls has also hurt Labour disproportionately.

Meanwhile, UKIP’s numbers have shown no sign of declining and the prospect of a comfortable win for Mark Reckless in Rochester next week isn’t going to help the Tories – UKIP are now 1/33 to win the by-election.

Is the betting shift reflected in the political scientists’ forecasting models? I’ve taken the latest estimates from a couple of excellent sites; Steven Fisher at electionsetc and Chris Hanretty at ElectionForecast and compared them to the probabilities suggested by Ladbrokes’ latest odds

ResultLADBROKESFISHERHANRETTYAverage
NOM59%56%79%65%
Lab Maj23%19%9%17%
Con Maj17%25%12%18%

The Hanretty estimate of a hung parliament would make it just under a 1/4 chance, which makes our 4/7 offer look quite generous. Both models make a Tory majority more likely than a Labour one, although that isn’t reflected in the betting yet.

All of this makes the market on what the post-election government will emerge even more open. We’ve seen a bit of money in recent days for a Lab/LD/SNP coalition, which has shortened up from 33/1 to 20/1.

Oh dear. The Ashcroft Scottish constituency polling may have been very bad news for Jim Murphy, but it wasn’t much better for Ladbrokes. We were hoping it might show some encouragement for Labour in some of their safest seats, but no. We are now sitting on some hefty losses if the SNP do as well as this polling suggests.

The SNP are now clear favourites in 40 seats in Scotland. Below is a list of every constituency, with their odds. You can find all of our latest constituency betting here.

Seat2010  WinnerSNP Odds
MoraySNP1/100
Dundee EastSNP1/100
AngusSNP1/100
Banff and BuchanSNP1/100
Perth and Perthshire NorthSNP1/33
Na h-Eileanan an IarSNP1/25
Inverness, Nairn, B & SLib-Dem1/8SNP GAIN
Argyll and ButeLib-Dem1/10SNP GAIN
Dundee WestLabour1/7SNP GAIN
GordonLib-Dem1/7SNP GAIN
Ochil and Perthshire SouthLabour1/6SNP GAIN
FalkirkLabour1/5SNP GAIN
Caithness, Sutherland & ERLib-Dem1/5SNP GAIN
Glasgow EastLabour1/3SNP GAIN
Ayrshire North and ArranLabour1/3SNP GAIN
Fife North EastLib-Dem1/3SNP GAIN
Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & K.E. Labour1/5SNP GAIN
Glasgow NorthLabour2/5SNP GAIN
Kilmarnock and LoudounLabour2/5SNP GAIN
Linlithgow and Falkirk EastLabour2/5SNP GAIN
Motherwell and WishawLabour2/5SNP GAIN
Glasgow SouthLabour2/5SNP GAIN
Aberdeen NorthLabour4/9SNP GAIN
Dunbartonshire WestLabour1/2SNP GAIN
LivingstonLabour1/2SNP GAIN
Glasgow CentralLabour1/2SNP GAIN
Edinburgh EastLabour1/2SNP GAIN
InverclydeLabour4/7SNP GAIN
Paisley and Renfrewshire SLabour4/7SNP GAIN
Airdrie and ShottsLabour4/6SNP GAIN
East Kilbride, Strathaven & LLabour4/6SNP GAIN
Glasgow North WestLabour4/6SNP GAIN
Lanark and Hamilton EastLabour4/6SNP GAIN
MidlothianLabour4/6SNP GAIN
Paisley and Renfrewshire NLabour4/6SNP GAIN
StirlingLabour4/6SNP GAIN
Dunbartonshire EastLib-Dem4/6SNP GAIN
Edinburgh WestLib-Dem4/6SNP GAIN
Aberdeen SouthLabour8/11SNP GAIN
Aberdeenshire W & KincardineLib-Dem4/5SNP GAIN
Glasgow South WestLabourEvs
Coatbridge, Chryston & Bells’Labour11/10
Ayr, Carrick and CumnockLabour5/4
Ayrshire CentralLabour5/4
Dunfermline and Fife WestLabour6/4
Ross, Skye and LochaberLib-Dem6/4
Edinburgh South WestLabour13/8
Edinburgh SouthLabour7/4
GlenrothesLabour15/8
Edinburgh North and LeithLabour15/8
Glasgow North EastLabour2/1
East LothianLabour2/1
Renfrewshire EastLabour9/4
Kirkcaldy and CowdenbeathLabour11/4
Rutherglen and Hamilton WestLabour11/4
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & TConservative3/1
Dumfries and GallowayLabour3/1
Berwickshire, Roxburgh & SLib-Dem3/1
Orkney and ShetlandLib-Dem4/1

Ladbrokes took a £16,500 bet on UKIP at 1/33 to win the Rochester by-election today. That intrepid punter will be collecting a £500 profit on Friday morning if things go as expected. If by some chance the Tories pull off a shock victory, it will probably be the most profitable by-election result in history for the bookies. I don’t hold out much hope.

The media narrative has already moved on to the guessing game of whether any other Tory MPs will be jumping ship. We now make it odds-on that at least one other Conservative defects before Christmas.

Favourite for a while now has been the MP for Kettering, Philip Hollobone. Interestingly, he is an old boy of Dulwich College, along with Nigel Farage. Some shrewdies have been backing UKIP to win his seat at the general election, now 6/1. I guess that might be better value than the 2/1 about him being next out.

The morning after last week’s Rochester and Strood by-election, we made the Tories 4/6 favourites to re-take the seat next May. Punters have been even more bullish and the Conservatives are now even stronger favourites, at 1/2, with UKIP drifting out to 6/4

According to our individual constituency prices, that means Rochester & Strood is now the eighth most likely win for UKIP at the general election. The UKIP win % is the chance of them taking the seat at the general election, as implied by our odds.

RankSeatWin 2010UKIP Win %
1ClactonCons82.25%
2Thanet SouthCons64.58%
3ThurrockCons57.47%
4Boston & SkegnessCons56.06%
5Great YarmouthCons40.33%
6Castle PointCons38.47%
7Thanet NorthCons36.55%
8Rochester & StroodCons35.87%
9Great GrimsbyLab32.94%
10RotherhamLab28.51%
11Cannock ChaseCons27.91%
12DoverCons27.77%
13Louth & HorncastleCons26.29%
14Basildon S & Thurrock ECons25.67%
15Folkestone & HytheCons22.65%
16Sittingbourne & SheppeyCons22.57%
17EastleighLD20.81%
18Camborne & RedruthCons20.23%
19St Austell & NewquayLD19.83%
20Portsmouth SouthLD19.66%

So, 15 of their top 20 prospects are Tory held seats although it’s worth pointing out that UKIP might prevent Labour from winning seats like Thurrock, Yarmouth and Cannock Chase which would all be very high on Ed Miliband’s target list.

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